Modeling the economic benefits of better TB vaccines.

OBJECTIVE To describe the economic benefits of a better tuberculosis (TB) vaccine by modeling prevented TB medical spending and lost productivity throughout the world. DESIGN One model is based on benefits obtained from reducing the impact of TB on health spending. An alternative model is based on minimizing the impact of TB on health spending and lost productivity due to death and disability. Both models are applied to various world populations based on secondary data. RESULTS In terms of avoided medical spending, preventing 100% of the TB risk in a single individual is estimated to be worth from $38 for males in formerly socialist countries to S0.23 for children in Asia. More than 1 billion people would reckon their expected medical savings to exceed $25.00 if they received a 75% effective vaccine of 10 years' duration. Preventing lost productivity is worth substantially more throughout the world. CONCLUSIONS Improved TB vaccines would be of substantial immediate financial value to most of the populations of the world, including the poorest. The scientific uncertainties surrounding the development of a better vaccine could be a larger obstacle than investor uncertainty over whether a vaccine would be profitable.